Pandemics and Y2K
I’d like to make a quick point about readiness, particularly pandemic preparedness in the current media rush around swine flu.
After Y2K, many people complained that it amounted to nothing – there were no significant events that came out of it. This was a direct result of all the work that was put into fixing at-risk systems and likely many millions of person-years work. Had we not put all that effort in, it could have been very different.
Likewise, if swine flu does not amount to much, this may also be likely in large part to the massive amount of risk reduction and readiness that has been put in place over the last five years or so. There has been a massive amount of investment in pandemic influenza planning, general emergency management planning, and pandemic exercises (here in New Zealand at least Exercises Makgill and Cruickshank).
My point is that we shouldn’t behave like that this is going to be a 1918 Spanish Flu event (althought caution always suggested that the risk is there) and the end of the world as we know it (as some on Twitter might think so). With SARS, and Avian Influenza being prominent over the last few years, these have allowed many governments and health agencies to better prepare for an event such as swine flu. All this preparedness will improve our collective response to a potential pandemic. There are resources, trained people, plans and processes in place, and being used. I believe that all the work of the past few years will place us in a much more robust position to face this threat.